With the rapid development of the automotive industry, lightweighting and intelligence have become popular topics. Research shows that in the automotive industry, the overall vehicle weight will be reduced by 10%, fuel consumption will be reduced by 6-8%, carbon emissions will be reduced by 6-7%, and endurance and vehicle controllability will be significantly improved.
Lightweighting can be achieved from the aspects of design, materials, manufacturing, and evaluation. The effective application of lightweight materials is the most direct and effective way, so it has become one of the focus of the industry's development. As a typical lightweight and high-strength material, carbon fiber is one of the best choices for lightweight materials. However, due to issues such as price and mass production, its application in the automotive field is still on the rise.
The global carbon fiber demand in 2017 was 9,800 tons, and the figure in 2018 was 10,800 tons, an increase of 10.2%. From the perspective of the market volume of the application, the carbon fiber in the automotive sector is less than 200 million US dollars. From the perspective of the average material price, Carbon fiber is slightly lower than other fields, as follows. According to BMW's annual report: BMW's BMWi3 sales in 2018 were 34,829 vehicles, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year. BMW 7 Series 25718 vehicles with "CarbonCore" increased by 5% month-on-month. New energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, are inevitable. However, expensive light weight plus expensive power batteries and maintenance costs will undoubtedly greatly reduce the competitiveness of models.
In 2018, the global carbon fiber sales amounted to USD 2.571 billion, an increase of 9.7% from 2017's USD 2.344 billion, and the increase in sales amount did not exactly correspond to the increase in sales. This is because in the field of carbon fiber industrial applications, such as acrylonitrile raw material market, there is no huge change. With the advancement of low-cost carbon fiber technology, there is still room for the unit price of carbon fiber to fall, which is one of the goals pursued by the industry.
China has always been a big consumer of materials. Let's take a look at the consumption of carbon fiber.
The map of China's carbon fiber demand has not changed much over the years. The demand for carbon fiber and its composite materials by Chinese cars is less than 3% of the total demand, and it is far below the global average (10.8%). I have to say that although there is a domestic carbon fiber electric sports car, the future of the K50, but the domestic car's application of carbon fiber is still beginning to take shape.
The changes in the carbon fiber market are different from traditional industries, and changes in carbon fiber itself (especially cost) will also lead to dramatic changes in the market. The auto industry still relies on the consumption of auto modification parts and manufacturers of auto parts for luxury cars.
Compared with wind power, automotive composite materials not only have low cost requirements, but also require high cycle times, automated manufacturing processes, and economic maintenance requirements. The application difficulty can be imagined.
In the next few years, the low-cost composite material molding process will be the focus of the industry's development. The mass application of carbon fiber requires the parallelization of low-cost carbon fiber and low-cost composite material processes. Emphasis on efficiency is the king of scale application.
The application prospects of carbon fiber in automobiles are the most controversial in carbon fiber composites and the automotive industry, including:
1. The application of carbon fiber in the automotive field has a long history, from F1 racing cars to ultra-luxury cars. Among them, in addition to lightweight and other advanced indicators, cost is also an important consideration. Small batches (under thousands of units), composite materials Manufacturing costs are less than metal parts.
2. "Energy saving and emission reduction, green environmental protection" is a long-term theme of mankind. This is no longer a slogan. Practice requires social costs, and the costs are dynamic. For example, the abolition of national policies on fuel vehicles will affect this cost Variety.
3. The OEMs need to evaluate the "lightweight benefits" of the entire life cycle, and whether the overall benefits from weight reduction of the car can cover the costs required for lightweighting. If the cost accounting is not clear, the products made will not be competitive, and will naturally affect market promotion. There is a great correlation between lightweight benefits and green costs, which also makes evaluation difficult.
4. Carbon fiber composites are in their infancy, especially in the Chinese market, especially in the automotive sector. New energy vehicles are also in the exploratory period. From this point of view, it seems that there are still many ways to go for carbon fiber new energy vehicles. Only a free and open market can solve the problem of combining carbon fiber with the growth and batch of automobiles.
In summary
The large-scale application of carbon fiber in the automotive field also requires time and market tests, especially the balance of overall costs, such as material costs, manufacturing costs, maintenance costs, and so on. Although carbon fiber, an aerospace-grade material, has gradually become civilians, it does not mean that the goods made by it have fallen to the level of mass consumption. In view of China's national conditions, there are obvious differences in the application of carbon fiber in the field of public consumption and private consumption.
Some experts predict that the application of carbon fiber in China will open a new situation in the field of rail transit (such as high-speed rail). Of course, this is also a typical representative of the public consumption field. As for the automotive sector, with the reduction of production costs and the improvement of the overall consumption level, carbon fiber materials will gradually be used in high-end models.