For new energy vehicles
Both the downstream automotive consumer market and the upstream key materials [rare earth permanent magnets, flat copper magnet wires] are in China, and China's local motor industry has advantages in the industrial chain.
As one of the core three-electric systems of electric vehicles, motors account for 5-10% of the value of the entire vehicle and are one of the core components of the new energy vehicle industry chain. With the release of strong new energy vehicle industry stimulus policies by various countries, the industry has quickly recovered. Among them, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe and China will break new highs in 2020, and the demand for electric motors will increase.
Tesla and BYD are struggling to separate in this field. Tesla used AC induction motors before, but now it is gradually replacing rare earth permanent magnet motors made in China. This may become an important turning point. .
With the implementation of industrial policies in place, new energy vehicles will usher in a golden 20 years, China, the United States and Europe have become the main battlefields of electrification, and the level of replacement of fuel vehicles has accelerated. Global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach the 20 million level in 2025, with a penetration rate of over 20%, and a compound growth rate of 44.7%; in 2030, global sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 60 million, with a penetration rate of over 60%, with a compound growth rate of over 10 years. Speed 34%.
In 2020, the installed capacity of China's new energy vehicle drive motors was 1.357 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9%. China's drive motors resumed growth with new energy vehicles. It is estimated that in 2025, under the constraints of new policies and led by leading auto companies such as Tesla, China's new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 7.5 million units, driving the demand for drive motors of 8.25 million units; the demand for drive motors will further increase to 1,730 in 2030 10,000 units, a 10-year compound growth rate of 28.5%.
At present, the strategic layout of third-party companies is divided into two directions: focusing on motors and parts and integrated electric drive systems. Integrated electric drive systems can increase the premium capacity of motor companies and increase the value and profit of a single unit, but they will face auto companies. Currently, more than half of the motor system share is controlled by car companies, especially the top car companies firmly control the integration of the motor system in their own hands. It is extremely difficult for third-party companies to break through the electric drive system, but they are willing to do so. Luye's third-party motor companies are expected to gain more invisible shares.
In June 2021, the number of installed drive motors for new energy vehicles reached 267,478 units, an increase of 23.2% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 166.5%. Among them, BYD installed 42,148 units, up 43.8% month-on-month, surpassing Tesla to win the championship; Founder Motor installed 20,441 units, an increase of 0.05% month-on-month, ranking third; Weiran Power installed 15,522 units, an increase of 27.7% month-on-month. From the fifth in May to the fourth in June; Nidec has 13,320 units, an increase of 9.9% month-on-month, and rises one place to fifth; Ningbo Shuanglin's supply of 12,405 units, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, drops from the fourth in May to Sixth in June.
On July 8 this year, Tesla successively announced the price cuts for Model Y and Model 3. One of the important factors is the replacement of domestic motors. This is an important signal and watershed. The performance of the replaced domestic motor is better. The maximum power of the motor after Model 3 is increased by 9%, from 202kW to 220kW, and the maximum torque is increased by 9%, from 404Nm to 440Nm. After Model Y, the maximum power of the motor is increased by 22%, from 180kW to 220kW, and the maximum torque is increased by 35%, from 326Nm to 440Nm.
Before the Tesla Gigafactory settled in China, Taiwan played a pivotal role in Tesla Motors. The electronic control part was developed by Taiwan Chroma and Tesla for three years together, and the reduction gear used for the motor is another Taiwanese company Hota. In January 2019, the Tesla Gigafactory broke ground in Lingang, Shanghai, and Tesla promised to purchase 90% of its parts locally, and the motor supply chain began to shift.
The driving motor motors that can be applied to new energy vehicles mainly include DC motors, AC induction motors, permanent magnet motors and switched reluctance motors. Among them, the advantages of DC motors are huge starting acceleration, good electromagnetic torque control characteristics, convenient speed adjustment, simple control devices, and low cost. The disadvantage is that there is a mechanical commutator. Sparks appear on the surface of the commutator when running under high-speed and high-load conditions. Therefore, the motor speed should not be too high. Compared with other drive systems, it is at a disadvantage and has been gradually eliminated. The advantages of switched reluctance motors are simple and reliable, wide adjustable speed range, high efficiency, flexible control, and low cost; disadvantages are large torque fluctuations, large noise, need position detectors, and non-linear characteristics. These shortcomings make DC The application of electric motors and switched reluctance motors in the new energy automobile industry is restricted.
At present, in the field of passenger cars, permanent magnet synchronous motors and AC asynchronous motors are the most widely used. Most of the new energy vehicles produced in China use permanent magnet synchronous motors. Tesla used to be equipped with induction motors, which need to be energized to generate a magnetic field. The permanent magnet motors have been replaced with permanent magnet motors, and the permanent magnet motors themselves are made of magnets, with conversion efficiency. Obviously higher.
The material of the permanent magnet motor is the third-generation rare earth permanent magnet material neodymium iron boron, and the cost accounts for 30-40%. As the world’s largest reserve and producer of rare earths, China has locked in more than 85% of the production capacity of neodymium iron boron, which means The right to speak for permanent magnet motors must belong to China.
Rare earth permanent magnets (the core product is neodymium iron boron) are the largest downstream of rare earths, consuming 57% of the total rare earth consumption, and due to the high unit price, rare earth permanent magnets contribute more than 85% of the output value of all rare earth products. In 2020, the world's proven rare earth reserves are about 120 million tons, of which China's reserves are 44 million tons, accounting for about 36.7% of the world, ranking first in the world. In 2020, the global output of rare earth concentrates will be about 240,000 tons of REO, and China's output will reach 140,000 tons of REO, accounting for 58%, and ranking first in the world.
At present, China is paying more and more attention to the strategic value of rare earths. In recent years, a series of policy documents have been issued to rectify and standardize the management of the rare earth industry. The Chinese government firmly grasps the voice of rare earths, the lifeblood of permanent magnet motors is in China's hands, and overseas new energy car companies such as Tesla also have to rely on China.
According to the classification of the winding copper wire, the motor can be divided into flat wire motor and round wire motor. The flat wire motor has high energy efficiency, high power density, high integration and low cost. It is expected to quickly replace the traditional round wire motor. Mainly in the hands of Chinese companies. AHJD is the only magnet wire company in China with a sales volume of 200,000 tons. Its products include enameled copper and aluminum wires, automotive electronic wires and special conductors. AHJD cooperated with Denso to develop flat copper magnet wires, and realized small batch shipments in 2019. At present, it has completed the certification of core customers such as Japanese and American EV Maker.