I. Overview of the aluminum alloy chassis industry
Automobiles are generally composed of engine, chassis, body, electrical and other main parts. Chassis refers to the combination of the drive system, driving system, steering system and braking system on the car. Its functions include supporting and installing the car body, engine and The other components and assemblies form the overall shape of the car, withstand engine power, and ensure normal vehicle driving.
The upstream of the chassis industry chain mainly includes steel, non-ferrous metals, plastics, rubber, electronic components, etc., which are assembled and manufactured by chassis parts enterprises in the middle of the industrial chain. The produced transmission, driving, steering, and braking chassis systems are sold Downstream vehicle manufacturers.
The electrification is the development direction of the automotive industry. The rapid increase of the market share of new energy vehicles will also bring new opportunities for chassis components. Compared with the chassis systems of traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, the drive train will undergo major changes. The brake train needs to be replaced by a mechanical vacuum pump with an electronic vacuum pump. The drive train and steering system are basically the same. In addition, parts such as a battery box need to be added.
Analysis of the development status of China's aluminum alloy chassis industry
In 2019, the pressure on China's auto industry will further increase, and both production and sales and the main economic benefit indicators of the industry will show negative growth. In terms of passenger cars, the production and sales of passenger cars in China in 2019 were 21.36 million and 21.444 million, respectively, and the production and sales dropped by 9.2% and 9.6% respectively year-on-year. They accounted for 83% and 83.2% of the automobile production and sales, respectively, which were lower than the 3.4 and 1.2 percentage points of the production and sales ratio in 2018, respectively.
With reference to experience in other fields, new technologies and materials will start rapid growth after the penetration rate reaches 5% or 10%. In the next few years, combined with the tightening of "double points" and the continuation of the pain points of the mileage of new energy vehicles, the application of aluminum alloys in the chassis will quickly penetrate. The components that have made a greater contribution to the penetration rate increase are the steering knuckle (the penetration rate increased by 15% year-on-year) and the control arm (the penetration rate increased by 4.4% year-on-year, which is almost doubled).
Based on a 5% reduction in the unit price of products in 2018, the market for aluminum alloy knuckles, control arms and auxiliary frames was 36.7, 17.1 and 1.42 billion yuan, respectively. Main aluminum alloy chassis components totaled 6.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%.
Sort out the main domestic new energy models. The main pure electric models mainly based on BYD Qin EV and SAIC MarvelX all adopt a lightweight chassis structure, and the steering knuckle, control arm and auxiliary frame are made of aluminum alloy materials. Other relatively economical models currently use some aluminum alloy components, with higher penetration of steering knuckles and control arms, and relatively low penetration of aluminum alloy subframes.
Analysis of the competition pattern of China's aluminum alloy chassis industry
NBTP Group is a domestic leader in traditional NVH vibration reduction and noise reduction. The market share of chassis bushings is at the forefront of the market. It cooperates with lightweight business products such as forged aluminum control arms and knuckles. Solution, and customer collaboration, bring double effects. At present, the top competitors of the lightweight chassis structure business of NBTP Group mainly include WHBT, NBXS Precision Aluminum Automotive Parts Group, Guangdong HT Group, etc., and overseas competitors mainly include Saint-Jean Group, Pilberg, Optech and other companies. Due to the current low penetration rate of the wrought aluminum control arm, the industry has not yet been widely used, and there are relatively few parts and components companies involved in the layout, and the competition pattern is relatively loose.
In 2018, the shares of NBTP Group and WHBT in the field of domestic aluminum alloy chassis parts were 16.9% and 13.7% respectively. The advantage areas of the two are the aluminum alloy control arm and the steering knuckle respectively. Their market share in these two segments has reached 42% and 47%. The remaining share is mainly occupied by foreign companies. Due to gaps in design verification or manufacturing capabilities, most domestic manufacturers have only the after-sales supporting capabilities and cannot participate in the front-loading market.
4. Forecast of China Aluminum Alloy Chassis Market Capacity
Lightweighting is one of the important ways for new energy vehicles to resolve fuel consumption and range. At present, there are several compulsory and market-driven factors surrounding the increase in energy conservation. According to the “Double Points” requirement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the “Evaluation Methods and Indicators for Passenger Car Fuel Consumption (Consultation Draft)” updated on June 14, 2019, the current mandatory requirements for passenger car fuel consumption and the mileage of new energy vehicles The semi-mandatory requirements mainly include: (1) the sum of the fuel consumption points of passenger car companies and the points of new energy vehicles is positive; (2) the average fuel consumption of national fuel vehicles in 2025 is <4.6L / 100km (according to the more stringent WLTP test standard) ; The driving forces from the market mainly include the subsidy policy of new energy vehicles based on mileage and consumers' preference for long battery life or low fuel consumption models. It is expected that by 2025, the average penetration rate of aluminum alloy parts in the alternative parts of the chassis will reach 35% (currently only 7.2%), corresponding to a supporting value of about 1222 yuan for bicycles. At that time, the market capacity will be 33.24 billion yuan, and CAGR = 25.4% in this segment in 2018-2025.