From a global perspective, the current global composite materials are mainly glass fiber composite materials and carbon fiber composite materials, which together account for about 90% of the entire composite material market, of which glass fiber accounts for about 84%.
Prior to 2018, the growth rate of composite materials has maintained a growth rate of more than 4%, but in 2018 output only increased by about 1%. The primary reason is that the tariff policy of the Sino-US trade war has led to China's largest producer of composite materials. Production declines. In 2018, China’s carbon fiber industry relied heavily on imports, and the import ratio was about 70%. Carbon fiber is mainly controlled by Japan and the United States. At the same time, the United States increased tariffs on steel and aluminum as the matrix of composite materials by 25% and 10%, which directly led to China’s composite materials. The price of raw materials has risen. According to the statistics of the National Environmental Materials Corrosion Network, the global composite material output in 2018 was 11.4 million tons. Based on the data of JEC, AVK, CCev and other institutions, it is expected that the global composite material output will maintain a 5% growth in 2019, reaching 1197 About ten thousand tons.
In recent years, under the influence of the global economic downturn and other major environments, the structure of the global composite material market is gradually changing. The composite material market in developed countries and regions such as the United States, Japan, and Europe is relatively saturated and the growth rate is relatively slow. Due to the long-term per capita consumption of composite materials and the large market demand, the Asia-Pacific region has grown rapidly. This has generally promoted the stable growth of the composite materials industry. Data show that in 2018, China was affected by the Sino-US trade war and the global composite materials market achieved negative growth, with the global composite materials market reaching about 83 billion US dollars. Combined with the global composite materials market report released by Grand View, it is forward-looking that the global composite materials market will increase by about 6% in 2019, reaching approximately 88 billion yuan.
Wind energy, aviation and transportation have become growth engines for composite applications
Glass fiber has excellent properties such as light weight, high strength, high and low temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, heat insulation, flame retardancy, sound absorption, electrical insulation, etc., and a certain degree of designability. Therefore, the main application areas of glass fiber are concentrated in transportation and industry. Application, electrical and electronic, construction and other fields. Carbon fiber composite materials are currently mainly concentrated in aerospace, wind power industry, sporting goods, and automobile manufacturing.
Looking ahead combined with Grand View's forecast of the global composite material annual compound growth rate of 7.8%, CCev's forecast of global carbon fiber composite materials, AVK's forecast of European glass fiber composite materials and other data, forward looking is expected to the global composite material market in 2020-2025 It will produce an average growth rate of 6%, reaching a market size of approximately US$124.8 billion by 2025. The main driving force for market growth is the growing demand for lightweight materials in the aerospace, defense and automotive industries, the demand for corrosion-resistant and chemical-resistant materials in the construction, pipeline, and storage tank industries, and the electrical insulation and flame retardancy in the power and electrical industries Material requirements.
The excellent corrosion resistance, high strength and impact resistance of composite materials make it widely used in aerospace, construction, anti-corrosion, pipelines, water treatment and other fields. In recent years, the application fields of composite materials have become broader, and they have shown their skills in the automotive, new energy, and bridge construction markets. The application of composite materials in fastener manufacturing plays a very important role in improving the performance of fastener products.
Mainland China is the fastest-growing and largest producer and consumer of composite materials in Asia. Wind energy, large aircraft, automobile industry, construction, shipbuilding, and environmental protection have become the dominant market forces. China’s large market has attracted some well-known foreign composite materials companies, such as Hexcel, Gruit, Vestas, RTP, Alcan, Menzolite, Airbus, Samtechap, Huntsman, etc., who have built factories or expanded production in China, all of which have achieved good benefits.
Combined with the proportion of downstream applications in China's glass fiber industry in 2018, the proportion of glass fiber industry in the composite material industry, the proportion of carbon fiber application industry and the proportion of carbon fiber in the composite material industry, Lucintel's forecast of the growth rate of the composite material application field, forward-looking is expected to compound in 2019 Construction in the material application field accounts for 30%; transportation and transportation account for 28%, of which the aerospace field accounts for about 70%, occupying a dominant position; industrial applications account for 20%.
According to data from the China Composites Industry Association, combining the output of glass fiber and its output in composite materials (about 84%), the output of composite materials in China from 2014 to 2018 has increased, and the total output of composite materials in 2018 was about 5.57 million tons. This is a decrease of 4% from the previous year. According to the January-August 2019 data released by the China Composites Industry Association, it is predicted that the excessive increase in composite production in 2018 will slow down the production of composites in 2019. The total output of composites in 2019 is expected to be approximately 6.3 million tons.
According to data from the China Composites Industry Association, the overall demand for composite materials in China from 2014 to 2018 maintained an upward trend, but due to the excessive increase in glass fiber production capacity in 2018, the overall market price in 2019 fell. In the composite products industry in 2018, enterprises above designated size achieved revenue from main businesses of approximately 254.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%. Affected by the price drop, the forward-looking preliminary estimate of the operating income of China's composite materials in 2019 will reach approximately 235.9 billion yuan.
China's composite material output is expected to exceed 10 million tons
From a global perspective, composite materials are in high demand in the field of transportation, and industrial equipment accounts for 24% and 26% of the demand respectively; while domestic composite materials are currently mainly concentrated in the fields of construction and structure, as the main transportation And there is huge room for development in the field of industrial equipment.
With the rapid development of the national economy, the transformation of economic structure, and the accelerated development of other emerging industries such as new energy, environmental protection, and high-end equipment manufacturing, domestic demand for high-performance fiber composite materials will become stronger. Among them, the development of transportation and industrial equipment has great potential for the growth of polymer composite materials. From the perspective of sub-industry applications, the demand for aerospace, automotive, wind power and other industries has grown strongly. According to the output of my country's glass fiber composite materials in 2018 and the proportion of its output to composite material output, combined with the rapid development of carbon fiber, according to the current growth rate of my country's composite material output, it will develop at a conservative growth rate of 10%. In 2025, China's composite material output is expected to exceed 11.16 million tons.