The transformation of auto companies into electrification is obviously not a new topic. Too much news revealed that the era of automotive electrification is accelerating, the internal combustion engine market is shrinking, and traditional parts and components companies upstream in the industrial chain are in urgent need of transformation. The recent GM's drastic reduction of parts and gambling on new energy has pressed the accelerator key for parts companies' electrification transformation.
Looking at the decline of fuel vehicles, GM "gambles" on new energy
In 2019, GM trimmed 3,500 parts across all model product lines, which caused the plant's demand for parts to fall by 12%. Taking its Chevrolet as an example, the Explorer (Overseas) has reduced the configuration version from 8 to 6, and the number of engine configurations has also been reduced from 11 to 5.This reduces the production of each project from more than 200. Within 100.
Also last year, according to Dan Nicholson, GM's vice president of global electrification, the 8,000-person R & D team he led has gone from fully focusing on internal combustion engine development to 70% responsible for internal combustion engines, 30% responsible for electrification, and then To this day the ratio has been reversed.
Correspondingly, GM has cut about 8,000 jobs, accounting for about 15% of North American white-collar employees.
In contrast, it is GM's great efforts in the development of electric vehicles.
Earlier, in the labor negotiations with the American Automobile Workers' Union (UAW), GM had said that the group planned to invest $ 3 billion in the Detroit-Hamtrak plant for the production of electric trucks, vans and battery modules.
At the recent EV Week event, GM Chairman and CEO Mary Barra further revealed that it will invest more than $ 20 billion by 2025 for the development of electric vehicles and autonomous driving, and plans Launch 20 electric vehicles by 2023.
Xu was stimulated by the soaring market value of Tesla, or forced multiple attacks by Volkswagen, independent brands, and Japanese and South Korean car companies, so that GM had to let go of its commitment to fuel vehicles and even three-cylinder engines, and decided to move towards electrification.
If we say that China has vigorously developed electric vehicles before, many component companies have seen new business opportunities in the global automotive market; subsequently, the emission standards in the Chinese and European markets have become more stringent, the trend of automotive electrification has gradually become clear, and the transformation of traditional components has become inevitable; Well, this resolute operation of General Motors will undoubtedly further stimulate the nerves of accelerated transformation of upstream traditional parts and components enterprises.
What is the path for the electrification transformation of component companies?
Just as the reasons given by Bosch, Continental, and ZF for the abandonment of solid-state batteries have been too risky.
Right now, the era of Panasonic, LG Chem and Ningde has almost divided up most of the pure electric vehicle power battery market. It is difficult for latecomers to form a strong and powerful business model based on this technology.
At the same time, as a substitute for traditional engine and gearbox functions, motors and electronic control systems have also formed a preliminary competition pattern. And more mainstream OEMs are committed to developing their own R & D and manufacturing capabilities of electric motor control products. If OEMs in the future abandon outsourcing and turn to self-production, the survival space of independent suppliers will be significantly reduced.
Even so, the three core technology areas of pure electric vehicles are no exception, and other related fields are no exception. This has to make more traditional parts companies that are trying to transform or still hovering electrified "outside the door" worry about what the road to transformation is going to be. ?
What is certain is that in the short term, there is still no new energy technology line that can truly achieve "one word". Whether it is power batteries, electrical motor control, or other related technologies, they are still growing. This is the reason why various new energy technology routes, such as lithium-ion batteries, plug-in hybrids, hydrogen fuel cells, lithium iron phosphate batteries, and extended range, are in full bloom.
Taking hydrogen fuel cell as an example, with its characteristics of zero emission, long range, short hydrogenation time, and high energy conversion efficiency, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are gradually entering the small-scale commercial stage. During 2019, China's domestic sales of fuel cell vehicles reached 2,737 units, a 79.2% increase from the previous year. According to the latest plan, domestic fuel cell vehicle sales are expected to reach 5,000 to 10,000 units this year, 50,000 to 100,000 units by 2025, and a million units by 2030.
The vast development space has allowed many vehicle and component companies to see new hopes, thereby attracting giants such as Bosch, Garrett, Faurecia, Hyundai Mobis, etc. to develop this new technology field.
On the other hand, according to foreign media reports, Tesla is negotiating with Ningde Times on cooperation matters for cobalt-free batteries, and the two parties have basically reached a procurement intention. At present, this news has not been confirmed by the Ningde era.Hive Energy officially released the cobalt-free battery as early as last year.On the premise of consensus on the high nickel system, including international mainstream power battery companies such as Panasonic, LG, and Ningde Times Low-cobalt and cobalt-free batteries are being researched and developed as the next-generation power battery. This also means that a new power battery technology route is about to become mainstream.
In addition, the solid-state battery technology abandoned by Bosch, Continental and ZF will still be the focus of future technology development for many car companies, and the period from 2024 to 2025 will be the time for mass production of solid-state batteries under Toyota Motor and Volkswagen Group. node.
The market is not yet mature, and new technologies are emerging endlessly. Whether it is a traditional component company in transition or a new energy supply chain company that has been running for a long time, it is also repeatedly tested and explored on a thin ice. The future competitive landscape is still full of variables.
Under the industrial reform, the transformation of component companies needs to be accelerated
Recently, business consulting firm McKinsey estimated in its 2020 “ Electric Vehicle Index '' report that by 2024, German car manufacturers' market share in global electric vehicle production capacity will increase from 18% last year to 29%. With a production capacity of 1.7 million electric vehicles, Germany can become a global market leader as early as 2021, slightly ahead of China.
Although this statement has been questioned by many industry experts, no one can deny that the German electric vehicle market is rapidly rising. Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, Porsche and other car companies will enter the new energy product year this year. .
Under the huge business opportunities, the huge value chain of the automotive industry is rapidly changing.
Therefore, we saw that Siemens and Northvolt cooperated in research and development and production of high-quality lithium-ion batteries; Webast's two German and Chinese power battery plants were put into production; Bosch cooperated with Swedish Powercell to develop and produce fuel cells on a large scale; Continental Group and Germany Chemnitz University of Technology has started cooperation and is committed to the research and development of fuel cell technology; the construction of BASF plus-size battery cathode active material (CAM) production bases, etc.
At the same time, according to Bosch's financial report, in 2020, it will also invest 500 million euros in the field of electrified transportation, including fuel cell technology, and accelerate the commercial launch of hydrogen fuel cells to eventually achieve further expansion of new business areas;
In terms of Continental Group, in 2019, it adjusted its organizational structure for five major production bases located in Germany, the United States and Italy, and optimized about 2840 internal combustion engine technology-related jobs.According to foreign media reports, Continental Group subsidiary Vitesco Technologies (formerly Continental (Group Powertrain Division) will reduce one-third of posts this year;
This is not limited to Germany.
In terms of the performance of the international mainstream parts and components companies in 2019, due to the sluggish global economy and the continued decline of the auto market, the double decline in revenue and profits has become a common status quo. Organizational structure adjustments and personnel optimization are common actions, but they have increased their The investment in the technology field is a consistent plan of the component giants in 2020.
The global automotive industry chain is undergoing rapid changes. No one can guarantee when comprehensive new energy will be completely switched, and it is impossible to determine which technological route will be the true king in future market competition. All companies will experience testing and exploration. process. Facing the future, only if all companies try their best to take the quasi-technical context and run away with their lives, can they win the first-line vitality in the next market competition.
2020 is bound to be an extraordinary year. The epidemic quickly blocked the slightly warmer auto market, but failed to press the pause button for the automotive industry's change.General Motors "gambled" on new energy vehicles and will continue to reduce the operation of fuel vehicle parts, which is undoubtedly giving traditional parts Enterprise transformation pressed the accelerator. After GM, there may be more companies to follow this approach, and the traditional business pressure of component companies will further increase and transformation is imminent.