Quartz is mainly used for optical fiber preforms and auxiliary materials in the field of optical communication.
Quartz is the core raw material for optical fiber preparation. Optical fiber preform is the core raw material for manufacturing quartz series optical fiber, and quartz material is the key raw material for optical fiber preform. Prefabricated rods are made by chemical raw materials (mainly quartz) in a complex process; the intermediate link is drawn with preformed rods to make optical fibers; the downstream of the industrial chain is processing optical fibers, chemical materials and metal cables into different types of optical cables .
Optical fiber preform is a core component in the field of optical fiber manufacturing, which is composed of a core rod + an outer sleeve. The early light rod manufacturing technology used a one-step method. After more than thirty years of development, the two-step process route was finally determined. That is, the mandrel is manufactured first, and then the outer sleeve is manufactured using different technologies outside the mandrel.
The manufacture of the core rod determines the transmission performance of the optical fiber, and the outer layer determines the manufacturing cost and quality of the optical fiber. As the core material of the optical fiber preform, the core rod and the outer cover have very high requirements for material purity.
Mandrel rod preparation: The main manufacturing processes are in-tube deposition method and out-tube deposition method. In-tube deposition methods include improved in-tube chemical vapor deposition (MVCD) and plasma in-tube chemical vapor deposition (PCVD); out-of-tube deposition methods include vapor axial deposition (VAD) and out-of-tube vapor deposition (OVD). The inner core layer has good quality, the outer tube deposition speed is fast, and the cost is low.
Outer layer preparation: The outer layer technology mainly includes casing method and full synthetic method. The casing method includes the small-sized casing method (RIT) and the large-sized casing method (RIT); and the total synthetic method is also known as the flame hydrolysis method (SOOT), which also uses the vapor axial deposition method (VAD) and the outer tube gas phase Deposition method (OVD). The casing method equipment is simple but relies on imported casing. The total synthetic equipment cost is higher but the raw material localization rate is high and the production cost is low.
In the field of optical communication, quartz is also widely used in various auxiliary materials: target rods, tail rods, sintered tubes, etc. Quartz can be used as a support material for optical fiber preform production, a support material for fiber drawing, and the like. This includes head tubes and tail tubes in MCVD and PCVD processes, target rods used in OVD and VAD processes, quartz sintered tubes, grip rods, handle tubes, quartz covers, etc. used in the drawing process of preforms. Because some metal impurities and hydroxyl-containing impurities have a great impact on the attenuation of the optical fiber, the optical fiber has higher requirements for the purity of quartz; OVD method requires a target rod. When using high-purity quartz as the target rod, only the deposition package is required. In the OVD process, the target rod is moved back and forth while rotating, and layer-by-layer deposition can form a porous glass body.
Speeding up network speeds up fiber optic cable construction, driving demand for quartz materials
In 2017, the global fiber optic cable market was US $ 11.07 billion, and Absolute Markets Insights estimated a compound growth rate of 18-21 at 5.8%. According to data from the communication market research institute Absolute Markets Insights, the global demand for optical fiber and cable in 2017 was 489 million core kilometers, and the market size was about 11.07 billion US dollars. With the continuous development of the Internet and broadband construction around the world, new communication projects have been launched in some emerging markets such as India, the Middle East, and Africa; while developed countries such as North America, Western Europe, and Japan have greatly promoted FTTx projects; China, Brazil Broad areas such as Russia and Russia have vigorously supported network construction. These three factors have led to a steady and high-speed increase in global fiber market demand. According to the industry policies of major countries in the future, Absolute Markets Insights predicts that the global fiber optic cable market size will reach US $ 13.870 billion by 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.8%.
We expect the growth of domestic fiber optic cable demand to slow down in 18-21. According to Absolute Markets Insights data, the global optical fiber and cable market size in 2018 was approximately 11.07 billion US dollars. According to cable network data, China's optical fiber and cable demand in 2017 accounted for 57% of the global share. From 2011 to 2017, the output of China's optical fiber and cable industry increased from 95 million core kilometers to 275 million core kilometers, with a compound annual growth rate of 19%, and the output and sales were basically the same. With the advancement of network technology, the promotion of speed and fee reduction policies, and intensified competition among operators, multiple factors have accelerated domestic household broadband access rates and rapid increase in traffic. We expect that the main domestic demand structure in 2018 will be driven by FTTH and wireless network construction. The number of China Industry Information Research Institute estimates that the FTTH penetration rate is about to peak and the 4G base station construction has come to an end. It is judged that 2018 will become the apex of domestic FTTH construction demand release. In addition to FTTH, although the demand for 4G plus 5G in wireless networks is high, it only accounts for about 30% of domestic fiber optic cable demand, which is difficult to offset the decline in FTTH growth rate. Therefore, we expect that the overall growth rate of domestic fiber optic cables will decline.
Optical fiber preform: the core component of optical fiber cable, mainly imported, domestically launched alternative start
Industrial policy promotes the migration of optical fiber preform production capacity to domestic domestic demand. Since 2015, the Ministry of Commerce of China has imposed anti-dumping duties on imported optical fiber preforms from Japan and the United States, of which 10% are Japanese companies and 40% are American companies. As the price of imported optical rods has increased, and downstream operators ’demand for high-speed optical network construction has continued to increase, domestic optical fiber and cable manufacturers have actively expanded the capacity of optical fiber preforms. The self-sufficiency rate of domestic preforms has steadily increased year by year. The optical fiber market reports that in 2016, China ’s optical fiber preform production capacity has become the world ’s largest, reaching 6,677 tons, more than the total of the second and third United States and Japan, and the preform self-sufficiency rate has reached 80%.
We estimate the global demand for quartz for optical fiber in the period of 18-20 years to be RMB 5.59 billion and RMB 6.3 billion. According to data from the Prospective Research Institute and industry research, 30,000 core kilometers of optical fiber will consume about 1 ton of optical fiber preforms, and after the price of optical rods increases after 16-17 years, downstream capacity expansion will cause the optical fiber preforms to return to a stable level in the past 2 years. The profit level is basically stable, and the price is close to the level before the 15-year price increase. Considering that the optical fiber preform has entered a stable development period, we assume that the price is basically flat in 18-20 years. The aforementioned mentioned the data given by the quartz professional committee of the China Building Glass and Industrial Glass Association. The global optical communications-related quartz market size was 3.8 billion yuan in 2015; and the global optical fiber demand increased from 352 million core kilometers to 489 million cores in 2015-2017. Kilometers, an increase of 38.92%, it is estimated that the global scale of quartz for fiber optic cables will be 5.3 billion yuan in 17 years. According to Absolute Markets Insights' forecast that the global optical fiber demand will grow at a compound growth rate of 5.8% in 18-21, the global demand for quartz for optical fiber in 18-20 years will be calculated to be RMB 5,593,6.3 billion.
At present, all core rod materials depend on imports, and 90% of sleeves depend on imports. Domestic optical fiber products are concentrated in low-end auxiliary materials. The ferrule is the core material of the optical fiber preform. The core rod and ferrule have very high requirements for the purity of the material. According to our industry research, most of the core rods are made of silicon tetrachloride hydrolytic synthesis, and all rely on imports; % Comes from imports, while domestic quartz products for optical fiber are mostly concentrated on low-end auxiliary materials. At present, a few domestic companies, such as Philips and Quartz, already have the ability to produce optical fiber preform outer cover sleeves, which can meet the demand for quartz optical fiber sleeves in a small part of the domestic market.