The world's largest miner BHP Billiton (BHP) reported on May 21 that it is estimated that by 2035, the number of electric vehicles in the world will reach at least 132 million; by 2050, the number of electric vehicles will reach 561 million. Huw McKay, vice president of economic and market analysis at BHP Billiton, said that by 2035, electric vehicle sales are expected to account for at least 7% of global car sales, which is an increase from the company's original estimate of 5%; By 2050, the estimated number of electric vehicles will account for 27% of the total number of vehicles, which is higher than the company's previous report of 21%, due to the expected decline in battery costs and car manufacturers' interest in producing electric vehicles. Increased impact.
McKay said that the above are only the lowest estimates, because the growth rate of electric vehicles depends largely on the speed of infrastructure construction, and under the high-growth model, all cars sold worldwide in 2050 will be electric vehicles. The number of electric vehicles is also expected to reach 700 million by 2035 and 1.6 billion by 2050.
The report compares the future development of the electric vehicle market with the smartphone market. It believes that the key point for the growth of electric vehicles is that they can outperform traditional vehicles in all aspects. The most decisive factor is the battery, including cost, mileage and charging. Will determine when electric vehicles will be generally accepted by consumers.
Australia's two major miners, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, have set their sights on battery metals for electric vehicles. BHP Billiton previously considered the sale of Nickel West assets in Australia, and finally decided to operate on its own because nickel prices fell and failed to find a suitable buyer. The company believes that with the development of the electric vehicle industry, it will help improve single charge Mileage demand for nickel will also increase, and nickel demand from the electric vehicle market is expected to accelerate from 2020. Rio Tinto said that the company's Jadar lithium mine project in Serbia is expected to complete a feasibility assessment within 18 months.
The chief consultant of the British Commodity Research Institute (CRU Group), Alex Laugharne, said that in the next 5-10 years, the revolution in electric vehicles will dominate the direction of the nickel market and drive nickel prices higher. The surge in demand may lead to the nickel market There is a supply gap. Longhani pointed out that although the current consumption of nickel in the electric vehicle market accounts for only a small proportion of the total consumption, it is the fastest growing market.
Langhani said that China is currently the main producer of battery-related metals and accounts for 85% of global lithium battery production. The Chinese government has adjusted the electric vehicle subsidy policy to promote the production of higher-end and more competitive auto manufacturers. electric car.
The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) report of the United Nations estimates that the global nickel market will have a supply shortage of 84,000 tons in 2019, and the supply gap will be narrowed from last year's 146,000 tons, mainly due to increased supply from Indonesia. Impact, but will be the nickel market shortage for the fourth consecutive year.
The report said that Indonesia ’s nickel ore output increased by 71% last year, driving the country ’s ferronickel output to grow strongly. In addition, China ’s nickel output has also continued to grow, with Chinese nickel output increasing 12% annually to 175,000 tons in the first quarter of this year. On the demand side, the main use of nickel is still in the production of stainless steel, and global stainless steel production is expected to increase by 5.5% this year.