In the early days of power battery development, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) had leading advantages in terms of safety, cost, high temperature performance, and cycle life, and was widely used. However, the low energy density of lithium iron phosphate restricts its development. In April 2017, the "Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology requires that the specific energy of the power battery unit reaches 300Wh / Kg and the specific energy of the system is 260Wh / Kg; increasing the battery energy density has become the industry consensus. The energy density of power batteries based on lithium iron phosphate is difficult to meet this requirement. In contrast, the ternary lithium battery has a higher energy density, which can reach 150-200Wh / kg.
At present, the ternary positive electrode market is mainly NCM532, and the proportion of high nickel ternary is expected to increase: NCM mainstream models include NCM333, NCM424, NCM442, NCM523, NCM622, NCM811. Among them, NCM333, NCM523, NCM622 and NCM811 are mainstream. At present, the domestic ternary materials are mainly NCM523, accounting for 76%, and NCM333 and NCM622 accounting for 13% and 10%, respectively.
Proportion and forecast of new energy vehicles using lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries (Unit:%)
In the next few years, ternary cathode materials will benefit from the rapid development of new energy vehicles and the continuous promotion of ternary cathode penetration, which is expected to achieve an annual compound growth rate of 80% in the future. According to research by Anxin Securities, it is estimated that the global sales of new energy passenger cars will reach 17.55 million units in 2025. According to the estimated 60kwh of single-car battery capacity, the demand for power batteries is 1053GWh, which translates into a market size of more than 600 billion yuan. It is estimated that by 2030, the size of the power battery market will reach trillions.
The ternary battery has a higher energy density than the lithium iron phosphate battery, which is in line with the model upgrade trend, so the proportion of ternary materials is gradually increasing. The demand for ternary cathode materials in power batteries is about 0.14 tons / GWh. According to the calculation of power battery installed capacity of true lithium research, the domestic and overseas power ternary materials market demand in 2018 is 59,000 and 57,000 tons, corresponding to the market size. 11.8 billion yuan and 12 billion yuan. It is estimated that by 2025, the market size of ternary cathode materials at home and abroad will reach 93 billion yuan and 150 billion yuan, respectively, totaling more than 240 billion yuan.