When everyone is focusing on the fields of electric vehicles, autonomous driving, and intelligent networking, when capital flows to emerging industries, the engine industry, which has been roaring for more than 100 years, seems to be gradually ignored, and even a strong "singing" voice appears . No one will deny the technical advantages of emerging technologies such as electric drive systems in specific fields, but the automobile engine and even the wider internal combustion engine industry will decline? On this occasion, we should carefully taste the most authentic voices of the global engine industry.
● It is too early to "sing down" engines
The explosion point of the "singing bad" engine was at the beginning of last year, when various countries' "fire bans" (referring to stop selling traditional internal combustion engine cars) were hyped, some industry people and media over-interpreted, misunderstood, and even out of context made the whole industry popular There was something strange. Before we move into 2020, we should make clear the fact that no country has raised the "prohibition of internal combustion engines" to the legal level and implemented it. It is too early to "sing down" automotive engines. We should take a rational view of the current status of the engine industry.
First, we need to broaden our perspective on the engine. Automotive engines are not the whole of the internal combustion engine industry. Professor Li Liguang of Tongji University mentioned that the scale of China's internal combustion engine and related fields is close to one trillion, which can boost the output value of more than ten trillion in upstream and downstream industries. The sustainable development of the internal combustion engine industry is self-evident to the national economy.
Secondly, based on the current important position of the internal combustion engine industry in the industrial structure and economic structure, the relevant market segments of internal combustion engines should also assume greater responsibility for energy conservation and emission reduction. At present, global auto companies are under tremendous pressure to save energy and reduce emissions, and the real reason for this change is the Paris Agreement, which reached a global consensus in 2015. Countries have put forward specific targets for reducing carbon emissions, especially for the automotive industry. Michele Battistoni, a professor at the University of Perugia in Italy, said that the EU ’s requirements for carbon emissions in the automotive industry means that there is more work to be done in the engine industry. At present, the market has promoted low-cost emission reduction technologies. The more effective the technology, the more cost it will have to pay.
Third, electric cars reduce emissions without burning fuel? This is a wrong view. Reducing carbon emissions should not only look at the level of vehicle use, but should compare the entire life cycle from vehicle manufacturing to recycling. In the future, with the increase of nuclear power and the proportion of clean energy power generation, pure electric vehicles will have an advantage in terms of carbon emissions. According to data provided by Paul Miles, the director of the engine combustion test laboratory at Sandia National Laboratory in the United States, the carbon emissions of traditional engine vehicles in the entire life cycle of 2018 are lower than those of pure electric vehicles, mainly because the proportion of thermal power used in the world is still high. . For this reason, it is not necessarily the most appropriate choice to "sing down" engines and promote pure electric vehicles at this stage.
● Car engine will not disappear completely
Taken together, the industry expects that the proportion of engines in the automotive industry in 2030 will be more than 70%. Some people may ask that there are also rumors in the country that the relevant departments of the country are discussing the "fire ban". For this question, you can pay attention to the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" (Consultation Draft) just released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
Among them, the definition of new energy vehicles includes pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended range) vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles, which means that the development of new energy vehicles is not a single pole to kill the engine industry. After the engine is electrified, it is plugged in There is still a great demand for new and extended-range new energy vehicles.
There is also an indicator in the document that new energy vehicles will account for about 25% of new vehicle sales in 2025. Obviously, the remaining market is still occupied by traditional engines. China has a vast territory. In some plateau, high temperature, and cold regions, the ability of internal combustion engines in transportation, power generation, and engineering machinery is irreplaceable by other power systems.
In fact, the meaning of automobile electrification is broad, and the electrification of the engine is also a way of electrifying the automobile. Hybrid is a typical example. The engine is not a lone hero. In the future, the engine needs to be developed in cooperation with a variety of technologies, such as 48V moderate hybrid models and plug-in hybrids.
Toyota clearly put forward the development goal of increasing sales of electric vehicles, and by 2030, electric vehicles will account for 50%. Takashi Uehara, chief engineer of the Toyota Motor Powertrain Product Planning Department, introduced to us that Toyota's electrified models are not purely electric, but include plug-in hybrids. About 90% of Toyota's cars will still need engines.
From an international point of view, the proportion of power systems in the future automotive market in the European Union, the United States, and China is different, but engine-based transmission systems will be mainstream. Although South Korea is advocating the development of hydrogen vehicles, fuel cell vehicles may account for 10% of the market in 2030, but it will not develop a large share even in 2050. Most markets are still hybrid and plug-in vehicles .
In the future, regardless of whether it is a traditional engine or pure electricity or hydrogen energy, each technology is constantly evolving, and it is also facing certain risks and uncertainties. The technological diversification is the positive solution of industrial development.
● The thermal efficiency of the engine is over 50%
With the improvement of engine thermal efficiency and the improvement of emission treatment technology, future cars may really become "air purifiers". Speaking of thermal efficiency, Japanese auto companies are still in a relatively leading position. Japanese automotive companies have different ideas for the application of engine technology, but the goal is the same-to continuously improve engine combustion efficiency. From 1995 to the present, the thermal efficiency of engine of Japanese auto companies has increased from 37% to 41% now. In the future, commercialized products can reach 45%. In the next step, everyone will challenge 51%. Decreasing.
Take Toyota, for example. The hybrid special-purpose engine (1NZ-FXE) equipped on the Prius had a thermal efficiency of 37.6% in 1997. Today, the hybrid special-purpose engine on the Toyota TNGA platform reaches 41%. 46%, reached 48% through "Super Lean Burn" technology (referred to lean burn with larger air-fuel ratio).
Earlier this year, in the Japanese SIP project (a government-led strategic innovation project), a research team composed of Waseda University and other units achieved a thermal efficiency of 51.5% for gasoline engines in the laboratory. Mazda recently announced that it has achieved a 56% thermal efficiency target for gasoline engines in the laboratory. Recently, two local Chinese companies have achieved 49.5% and 48% thermal efficiency of gasoline engines in the laboratory.
In China, FAW Hongqi CA4GC20TD economic version has a thermal efficiency of 39% (power version is 38%). Li Jincheng, chief expert of China FAW Research and Development Institute, pointed out, "FAW has set a goal for future new cars to reduce fuel consumption, in which the engine will contribute 58%, so technology needs to be continuously upgraded. Hybrid is also the main technical route of FAW. Special engine with% thermal efficiency. We will achieve the 45% target by 2025, and we will move towards 50% in the future. "
Regarding the further improvement of engine technology, Li Ricoh gave three stages of technical application suggestions. Recently, Atkinson cycle / Miller cycle, high compression ratio 13: 1, 350bar direct injection system, high-energy ignition, EGR, thermal management technology, low-viscosity motor oil (XW-20), etc. are mainly promoted.
Medium-term promotion of deep Atkinson cycle / Miller cycle, high compression ratio 15: 1, 500bar direct injection system, variable compression ratio, lean combustion and lean combustion aftertreatment, ignition assisted compression ignition, AI and intelligent control, high-energy ignition, Accessories electrification, thermal management technology, low viscosity motor oil (XW-16), carbon neutral fuel, etc.
Compression ignition, super lean combustion, ultra-high compression ratio, 1000bar direct injection system, intelligent combustion feedback control, oxygen fuel, compression ignition fuel, zero-emission aftertreatment, low-viscosity motor oil (XW-8), thermal insulation technology, waste heat recovery Technology, etc. Li Liguang believes that although many advanced technologies are in the concept stage or laboratory stage, it is not impossible to achieve promotion. "It is expected that between 2025 and 2030, a 50% thermal efficiency engine may be commercialized."
Full text summary:
The adjustment of the market structure will not happen overnight, and the engine industry will not be painted with the end symbol. Instead, there will be greater demand for technological upgrades. This industry needs more electrified talents. In the future, engines will not exist independently, but will be integrated with more electrified systems. Blindly "singing bad" engines is out of date, and the diversified technical route is the positive solution for the development of China's automotive power market.