Superalloys can be divided into iron-based superalloys, nickel-based superalloys and cobalt-based superalloys according to the matrix material. In R&D applications, it is generally divided into casting superalloys, wrought superalloys and other new types of superalloys according to the preparation process, such as powder metallurgy superalloys, dispersion strengthened superalloys ODS, etc.
Application areas of superalloys
Superalloys are mainly used in the aerospace field and are cutting-edge industrial materials that stand at the tip of the pyramid. In the material industry, superalloys mainly serve the aerospace industry. Due to their excellent high temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, fatigue resistance and other properties, they have been applied to power, petroleum and petrochemical, automotive, metallurgy, glass manufacturing, atomic energy and other industrial fields. At present, its largest application is still in the aerospace field, accounting for 55% of the total usage, followed by the power field (20%) and the mechanical field (10%).
Supply and demand status of superalloys
In recent years, the output of China's superalloy industry has shown rapid growth, from 13,000 tons in 2014 to 27,600 tons in 2019, an increase of 14,600 tons, a growth rate of 112.3%, and an average annual growth rate of 22.5%.
Since 2014, the output of China's superalloy business has maintained a steady growth, but due to factors such as high technical barriers, long certification cycles, and large capital requirements, China's output of superalloys has grown slowly and the yield rate is low. However, the downstream demand has grown rapidly. By 2019, China's overall market demand for superalloys is about 48,222 tons, and the problem of short supply is still significant.
At present, affected by the distribution of the world's aviation manufacturing industry, the world's main consumption of superalloys is concentrated in the more developed countries or regions in the aviation manufacturing industry such as Europe and the United States. The consumption of superalloys in China and other places is relatively small. Especially in the United States where the aviation manufacturing industry is the most developed. According to statistics, in 2019, the United States accounted for 48% of the world's superalloy consumer market; followed by Europe, accounting for 25%; Asian consumption accounted for about 22%, and other regions accounted for 5%.
The competitive landscape of the superalloy industry
At present, the number of high-end superalloy companies in China is small, and the overall technological level still lags behind that of leading international companies. There is a large gap between the production capacity of high-end superalloys and actual demand in the high-end aerospace field. China's 12 high-temperature alloy producers total about 20,000 tons. LZFS Special Steel Technology Group accounts for about 25% of the total output. The top three account for 50% of the entire output. The trend is obvious and the market concentration is high.
Future development needs of superalloy industry
1. Civil Aviation Superalloy Demand
China's civil aviation fleet continues to expand, but the growth rate has slowed down. According to the CAAC's annual bulletin, the number of China's civil aviation transport aircraft at the end of the period increased by 1,168 from 2015 to 2019, with an average annual compound growth rate of 10%. As of the end of 2019, airlines had transported 3,818 aircraft, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and the growth rate was only half of the same period last year. The engine life of the three major airlines’ annual reports ranges from 3 to 15 years. As of the end of 2019, the average age of the three companies’ aircraft fleets was 6.7 years. Based on comprehensive considerations, assuming that the replacement cycle of commercial aircraft engines is 6 years, and the domestic supply rate remains the same as above, it is concluded that domestic engine replacement needs in 2025 and 2030 will be 90 and 77 units respectively, and a cumulative increase of 811 units by 2023 , An average annual compound growth rate of 11%. Civil aviation will have a strong demand for superalloys in the future.
2. Gas turbine demand
The application of gas turbines is mainly in the field of ships. In addition, as the use time increases, it is necessary to replace the superalloy blades regularly, which requires maintenance. A total of 170 superalloy blades are required for normal operation of a gas turbine each year, and the replacement period is about 2-3 years.
Superalloys are mainly used in gas turbine combustion chambers, guide blades, turbine moving blades and turbine discs, and are one of the important materials for the construction of gas turbines. The core technology of superalloy blades has been difficult to overcome for a long time, and the import dependence is strong. Suppliers include GE and Siemens. However, as domestic technology continues to make breakthroughs, demand for domestic substitution is expected to be released.
3. Auto industry demand
In the automotive field, high-temperature alloys can be used in automotive turbochargers, engine exhaust pipes, valve seats of internal combustion engines, inserts, intake valves, sealing springs, spark plugs, bolts, and heat generators. Compressor is the main application scenario.