The encapsulation materials in the photovoltaic module market mainly include transparent EVA film, white EVA film, polyolefin (POE) film, co-extruded polyolefin POE (EVA-POE-EVA) film and other encapsulation films.
According to IRENA data, photovoltaics are the renewable energy sources whose costs have fallen the fastest in the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the photovoltaic weighted average cost of electricity (LCOE) dropped from US$0.378 kWh to US$0.068/kWh, a drop of 82.01%, far exceeding CSP (-47.40%), onshore wind power (-38.37%), and offshore wind power (-28.57%) and other renewable energy sources.
As photovoltaic competition increases, demand is expected to continue to grow. According to CPIA data, the world's new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach about 130GW in 2020, and by 2025, the new installed capacity will reach between 270GW and 330GW.
In the photovoltaic industry chain, photovoltaic adhesive film is mainly used in the encapsulation of photovoltaic modules and is a key material for photovoltaic modules. It has a protective effect on fragile solar cells and can improve the photoelectric conversion efficiency of the module. Because the packaging process of photovoltaic cells is irreversible, and the operating life of battery modules is usually required to be more than 25 years, once the film and backsheet of the battery module start to yellow or crack, the battery is easy to fail and scrap, so despite the film and other films The proportion of materials in the total cost of photovoltaic modules is only about 7%, but it is a key factor that determines the quality and life of photovoltaic modules.
Photovoltaic has always been known for its technological progress and rapid cost decline. The technological changes mainly occur in the main industrial chain links (polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, modules). In recent years, there have been many major technological changes, such as polysilicon links. Cold hydrogenation replaces thermal hydrogenation, single crystal replaces polycrystalline in the silicon wafer link, and PERC cells in the solar cell link rise. In the future, new technological changes such as heterojunction cells are still in the pipeline. Every technological change will greatly promote the progress of the industry, but it will also have a severe impact on the existing structure. Compared with the main industrial chain, as an auxiliary material for photovoltaic modules, the technical route of adhesive film is relatively stable. No matter how the battery module technology changes, the demand for adhesive film has remained stable, and no substitutes will appear in the foreseeable future.
The packaging materials on the market mainly include transparent EVA film, white EVA film, polyolefin (POE) film, co-extruded polyolefin POE (EVA-POE-EVA) film and other packaging films. In 2020, module packaging materials are still dominated by transparent EVA film, accounting for about 56.7% of the market share, a decrease of 12.9 percentage points from 2019, mainly due to the increase in the market share of double glass modules and the increase in the price of EVA particles. Part of it is replaced by co-extruded POE film and POE film.
The right to speak belongs to China
In recent years, the scale of the global photovoltaic market has continued to grow, and the market demand for EVA film has also grown rapidly. Before China was unable to produce EVA film on a large scale, Chinese photovoltaic module companies mainly depended on imports. In 2013, overseas brands such as Specialized Technology Resources, Bridgestone, Mitsui Chemicals, and South Korea's SKC reached 60% of the market. With HZFS Applied Materials Technology Corporation, SHHY Photovoltaic Material Technology Company and other Chinese companies, through independent research and development or technical cooperation, they have gradually solved the problems of anti-aging and light transmittance of EVA film, breaking through the technical barriers of EVA film. At the same time, the price of EVA film produced in China has certain advantages compared with foreign products, and Chinese EVA film has begun to quickly replace foreign products. At present, three Chinese companies, HZFS, SHHY and JSSW, have accounted for more than 70% of the market share.
As the leader in the photovoltaic film industry, HZFS has a market share of more than 50%. The company has a rich variety of photovoltaic film. EVA film covers conventional, anti-PID, anti-snail pattern, ultra-fast curing, white and other series. POE film includes cross-linked, thermoplastic, white, co-extrusion and other series, with rich product categories . At the same time, the company introduced co-extruded POE film and grid transparent backplane to meet the material requirements of double-sided power generation modules.
As of the end of 2020, HZFS's photovoltaic film production capacity was 1.051 billion square meters. In 2021, the company will add 300 million square meters of production capacity. By the end of 2021, the total production capacity will reach 1.35 billion square meters. In 2021, H1 and H2 will add 150 million square meters respectively. In the future, the company will expand production at a rate of 300-400 million square meters per year, and is expected to increase its production capacity to 2 billion square meters by 2023.
The HZFS market share is basically more than half. Under this structure, downstream component manufacturers will be more cautious to increase HZFS`s procurement share due to supply security considerations. At the same time, under the same conditions, they may give priority to increasing the procurement volume of the second supplier, making Latecomers have room to increase market share.
SHHY is committed to the R&D, production and sales of special polymer film materials. It is known for its strong R&D strength, leading technology, and complete product series in the field of solar photovoltaic module packaging materials. From 2012 to 2020, more than 90% of the company’s revenue Photovoltaic film contribution. According to statistics from listed companies in the adhesive film industry, from the perspective of sales volume, SHHY's adhesive film sales reached 0.91, 1.37, and 163 million square meters in 2018-2020, with the share increasing from 7.1% to 10.4%. From the perspective of future expansion plans, it is conservatively estimated that the company's effective capacity share from 2021 to 2023 is expected to increase to 15.5%, 18.7%, and 21.4%, achieving a more obvious leap-forward growth.
JSSW is the world's leading supplier of photovoltaic film. The current effective production capacity is 360 million square meters per year. In 2020, the output is 254 million square meters and the sales volume is 213 million square meters. It accounts for 17.81% of the global photovoltaic film market sales, ranking it globally. second. JSSW has 115 technical patents (including 20 invention patents), which can effectively meet the needs of customers to increase light reflectivity, increase component power, and have water vapor barrier properties. The products have obtained UL (US), TV (Germany), VDE (Germany) ), CQC (China), JET (Japan), SGS (Swiss General Notary Company) and many other international certifications.