The most important market for carbon fiber in the world is wind power blades. The demand for carbon fiber in China's wind power blades has reached 32% of the world. China's most important carbon fiber market is sports and other civilian fields. China's demand for sports and leisure carbon fiber is 94%. Electronic, electrical, and compound molding also account for more than 50% of the global segment.
Aerospace: Increased carbon fiber penetration in military and civil aircraft
Modern carbon fiber materials began in the military, and aerospace is currently an important application area. Carbon fiber composite materials are ideal materials for large integrated structures. Compared with conventional materials, carbon fiber composite materials can reduce the weight of aircraft by 20% -40%, and have the ability to overcome the shortcomings of metal materials that are prone to fatigue and corrosion, and enhance the durability of the aircraft; the good moldability of the composite material can make The structural design cost and manufacturing cost are greatly reduced. It has been widely used and rapidly developed in the field of military aviation, and the penetration rate of carbon fiber composite materials continues to rise.
The penetration rate of military single-machine carbon fiber is constantly increasing. Due to the early start of the carbon fiber industry and the high level of technology in the United States, the proportion of carbon fibers used in military aircraft is currently at a relatively high level. According to the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the amount of carbon fiber composite materials used in the fourth-generation fighters represented by the US F-22 and F-35 reached 24% and 36%, respectively, and the proportion of the entire aircraft body composite material of the new US military transport aircraft ACCA was even as high 65%, the weight loss of the whole machine can even reach more than 25%. However, there is still a large gap between the proportion of the third generation fighter carbon fiber in active service and the average carbon fiber consumption of the 30% of the fourth generation fighter. Our army's single carbon fiber ratio still has huge room for improvement. With the upgrading of military aircraft, the proportion of carbon fiber composite materials used in Chinese military aircraft has also gradually increased, and the proportion of J-20 carbon fiber composite materials has been increased from 10% of J-11 to 27%.
The transformation of military aircraft into the main body of the third and fourth generations has driven the new growth of carbon fiber composite materials. According to the data of "Worldairforce2019", the total number of military aircraft in the world in 2018 was about 53,953, of which 13,398 were in the US military aircraft fleet in service, accounting for 24.83% of the total number of global military aircraft in the same period, ranking first; 3187 Chinese military aircraft, accounting for During the same period, 5.91% of the total global military aircraft, an increase of 151 compared with the same period last year, ranked third. Among them, China currently has about half the number of fighter jets in the United States during the same period. Transport aircraft, tankers, helicopters, trainers and other military aircraft are far behind the United States, and about half of the military aircraft models are relatively backward, with long service life and facing retirement. Equipment construction is in desperate need of speed. In the future, China will gradually phase out the second-generation aircraft and change the main body from the third-generation aircraft to the fourth-generation aircraft, forming a new generation of air combat forces based on the third- and fourth-generation fighters. The delivery of new aircraft has brought opportunities for the military aircraft manufacturing industry. Will drive demand for high-end carbon fiber composite materials. With the increasing production volume of military aircraft and the gradual increase in the proportion of single-machine carbon fiber, the demand for domestic carbon fiber will also increase.
Commercial aviation is an important application field of aerospace carbon fiber. In the aerospace carbon fiber demand distribution, the demand for commercial aircraft accounts for the highest proportion, and the demand for carbon fiber is huge. According to the official website of Boeing and Airbus, Boeing's composite material aircraft B787 delivered 145 in 2018, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year, and Airbus' composite material aircraft A350XWB delivered 93 aircraft, an increase of 19.2% year-on-year, driving 18 years of aerospace The increase of compound materials. In addition to the increase in the number of commercial aircraft, the use of individual aircraft carbon fiber is also increasing. Commercial aircraft emphasizes both safety and economy, and there is an urgent need for structural weight reduction. Composite materials are gradually replacing metal materials, and the amount is constantly increasing. The application accounts for 50% of the quality of structural materials. According to "Manufacture of Composite Material Components of A350", the structural weight of Boeing B787 composite material reaches about 50% of the weight of the whole aircraft structure, and the structural weight of Airbus A350 composite material is as high as 52%. According to the Beijing Evening News, as of October 2019, the number of global orders for the large jet civil aircraft C919 with independent intellectual property rights in China has exceeded 1,000, and the future import substitution space is huge. According to the feasibility study of the company's large tow carbon fiber industrialization project According to the report, the application of composite materials accounted for about 25%; the carbon fiber composite material in the fuselage of the C929 wide-body airliner is expected to exceed 50%, which can drive the steady growth of domestic carbon fiber composite materials, indicating a strong market potential.
The global fleet is estimated to be 49,558 by 2038, which is 2.1 times the existing fleet (23,893), of which an increase of 25,665 aircraft, replacing 19,786 aircraft, to retain 4,099 aircraft. In order to meet the growth in traffic volume, the fleet size of China is expected to be 10344 by 2038, including 2420 dual-aisle aircraft, 6938 single-aisle aircraft, and 1051 regional aircraft, accounting for 21% of the global total, with an average annual growth The rate ranks first in all regions of the world. From 1999 to 2018, mainland China historically delivered 3968 passenger aircrafts. It is predicted that 9205 passenger aircrafts will be delivered in the next 20 years, accounting for 20% of global delivery in the next two decades. The market scale continues to expand. Industry development.
Carbon fiber in China's aerospace industry is still to be developed. In China made 2025, carbon fiber is listed as a strategic material. It is planned that the amount of domestic carbon fiber used will reach more than 4,000 tons by 2020 to meet the technical requirements of large commercial aircraft. High-performance carbon fiber will basically achieve independent protection by 2025. With the support of government policies, the continuous improvement of the technical level of China's carbon fiber industry and the improvement of the industrial chain, the current distribution of carbon fiber industry in the benchmarking international, China's carbon fiber in the high-end aerospace field is expected to accelerate development.
Wind power is clean energy, and the wind power industry has developed rapidly in the 21st century. The cumulative growth rate of global cumulative installed wind power capacity from 2011 to 2018 was 13.93%. The growth rate of new installed capacity bottomed out after 2016 and will also maintain a relatively high growth rate. At present, China is the world's largest wind power market. The wind power market has a large volume and rapid development. In 2018, China's new installed capacity was 21.14GW, accounting for 43% of the world's new installed capacity; the cumulative installed capacity maintained a steady growth trend, reaching 209.5GW in 2018, accounting for 36% of the global total installed capacity. It is expected that China's new installed capacity will maintain a relatively high scale in the next few years, and the wind power market will have a huge demand.
The development of large-scale wind power blades has driven the application of carbon fiber composite materials in the field of wind power. China's newly installed wind power installations are developing towards high power and large size. According to CWEA statistics, the average power of newly installed wind turbines in China has increased steadily from 1,214 KW in 2008 to 2.2 MW in 2018. In 2018, the installed power capacity of mainstream models ranged from 2MW to 2.9MW, of which 2MW power units accounted for more than 50% of the newly installed capacity. The market share of 2.1-2.9MW units increased by 31.7% year-on-year, and the power of mainstream models continued to increase. Before the rated power is reached, the blade length is proportional to the power obtained under the same conditions. With the rapid increase of the power of wind turbines, the wind power blades are developing in the direction of large size and light weight. IEA predicts that the diameter of the wind wheel of the wind turbine will reach 250 meters around 2025. As the size of wind turbine blades continues to increase, the proportion of carbon fiber composite materials will continue to increase.
Overseas Vestas orders continued, and domestic wind power blade demand increased rapidly, with a compound growth rate of up to 107.15%. At present, Vestas is the world's leading customer in developing high-power wind turbine blades with carbon beams, and has many blade factories around the world. According to the 2019 annual report, Vestas' orders for wind power have reached 17.8 billion yuan. In the next few years, Vestas' carbon beam demand will continue to rise year by year. In addition to Vestas, domestic downstream wind turbine blade manufacturers have also risen rapidly. The amount of carbon fiber and its proportion in wind turbine blades have both increased rapidly. From 2015 to 2018, the compound growth rate of domestic wind power carbon fiber usage has reached 107.15%.
Automotive: New energy vehicles accelerate carbon fiber applications
From the perspective of the growth of the global carbon fiber subdivision industry, the automotive sector has grown rapidly. The average annual compound growth in demand in recent years has reached 33%, and the application of carbon fiber in the industrial sector has been relatively slow. According to "Overview of the 2020 Composites Industry Market," China is the world's largest automotive market, producing 27.8 million vehicles in 2018, including all passenger vehicles, light commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, and coaches. And the automotive industry is accelerating the application of carbon fiber materials in automobiles. At present, a number of manufacturers have issued relevant announcements, including Magna Automotive Exterior Systems and Guangzhou Automobile Parts Co., Ltd. (Guangzhou, China, GACC) to form a joint venture company. Materials (TPC) lift door; and Volvo's new brand electric high-performance car company Polestar uses carbon fiber materials as the chassis structure of Polestar1, which successfully reduced the weight of about 230 kg. Polestar1 includes hood, tail cover The fenders, doors and the entire roof are made of carbon fiber composite materials. This is the first time in the Volvo Group that cars have used such a large number of carbon fiber materials as the body structure.
China's new energy vehicle sales continue to rise, and carbon fiber is expected to accelerate its application in the automotive field. Compared with traditional cars, new energy vehicles use a relatively higher proportion of carbon fiber materials. As the dual pressure of resources and environment continues to increase, driven by policy and technological progress, traditional power systems will gradually be replaced by drive motors, power batteries and controllers. At present, many countries, especially developed countries such as Germany and other Western European countries have issued or proposed a timetable for the ban on the sale of traditional fuel vehicles, and the electrification of vehicles has become the general trend. Domestic sales of new energy vehicles at the initial stage of development have risen rapidly, from 330,000 in 2015 to 1.26 million in 2018, with a CAGR greater than 50%, accounting for the proportion of overall car sales rapidly increasing, even when the country's car sales decline. Energy sales continued to increase year-on-year. As of 2018, China's new energy vehicle production and ownership accounted for 4.6% and 1% of vehicle production and ownership, respectively. The demand-side potential is yet to be released. Future development trends are expected to continue to rise, driving carbon fiber in the automotive field.