Semiconductor applications: domestic substitution and performance upgrades promote both "quality" and "quantity"
Quartz's excellent properties such as high temperature resistance, high purity, and stable properties make it widely used in the semiconductor manufacturing process. It runs through the key processes of manufacturing related products in the semiconductor field: quartz crucibles are used for refining, cleaning containers, and making wafer IC carriers; quartz ingots The quartz tube is the material of the quartz flange, quartz diffusion tube, and quartz bell used in the diffusion, oxidation, deposition, and etching processes of semiconductor processes; the synthetic quartz ingot is the main substrate of the photomask base plate for key components in flat panel display technology.
Quartz materials are mainly used in the two processes of silicon wafer manufacturing and wafer manufacturing in the process of integrated circuit production.
1) Silicon wafer manufacturing
The most widely used quartz products are mainly quartz crucibles used to make wafer IC carriers (drawn single crystals); in addition, some quartz cleaning containers are used. Quartz crucibles are manufactured by directly melting high-temperature quartz sand using high-purity quartz sand as the raw material, and are mainly produced by purchasing high-purity quartz sand directly from quartz crucible factories (currently, most of the raw materials for single-crystal quartz crucibles are imported). In addition, quartz flower baskets and cleaning tanks are needed during the wafer grinding process.
2) Wafer manufacturing
Semiconductors need to be subjected to high-temperature heat treatment during the diffusion process, and to ensure that the surrounding materials of the silicon wafer are not deformed and do not emit impurities that are harmful to the semiconductor silicon at high temperatures. Therefore, quartz has high purity and high temperature resistance requirements. The most widely used device products in the diffusion and oxidation links mainly include quartz diffusion tubes and quartz flanges matched with diffusion tubes, quartz furnace tubes (supporting or carrying quartz boats to enter or exit the diffusion furnace), and quartz boats (bearing silicon wafers). , Bracket (bearing multiple quartz boats). Among them, the quartz diffuser is a relatively large amount of quartz products used in the semiconductor industry. Its purity, high temperature deformation resistance, and geometric size will directly affect the quality, cost and production efficiency of integrated circuits and devices; quartz boats and supports are indispensable quartz carrier devices for single crystal silicon wafer diffusion, oxidation, CVD deposition, and annealing treatment. ; Since the quartz boat, holder and single crystal silicon wafer are in direct contact at high temperature, the purity, temperature resistance and dimensional accuracy of the quartz used are high.
Semiconductors are the largest application of quartz materials. Semiconductor quartz is prepared and sold to quartz profile manufacturers through the preparation of basic materials, and is prepared into quartz devices directly used in semiconductor applications. It is then sold to semiconductor equipment manufacturers such as Tokyo Electronics, Applied Materials, etc., and then sold to chip manufacturers. .
Global semiconductor demand remains high, industry transfers maintain high domestic growth
The global semiconductor trade statistics organization WSTS estimates that the global semiconductor scale growth rate will reach 12.4% in 2018. According to WSTS data, global semiconductor sales have basically stabilized without significant growth from 2010 to 2016. The global market growth rate in 2017 reached 21.62%, which was higher than market expectations; the memory market growth rate was as high as 61.49%; Product prices have risen sharply; on the other hand, new applications such as the Internet of Things, automotive electronics, and AI have driven downstream demand. WSTS expects that, driven by the demand for AI, intelligent driving, 5G, VR / AR, etc., the global semiconductor industry will achieve a growth rate of 12.4% in 2018 and a growth rate of 4.4% in 19 years.
"Made in China 2025" proposes that the scale of the domestic integrated circuit industry will reach 20% in 2020. CSIA data shows that the domestic semiconductor sales growth rate in 2017 was 24.81%, the fastest since 2012. 2015-2017 domestic semiconductor sales maintained a growth rate of about 20% and gradually became the norm. The development of domestic semiconductors mainly benefits from the country's unprecedented support for the semiconductor industry. The Outline for the Promotion of the Development of the National Integrated Circuit Industry outlines clear goals for the development of the industry. The establishment of a large fund for the integrated circuit industry provides urgent needs for the development of the industry Financial support. "Made in China 2025" also puts the integrated circuit industry in one of the top ten areas that focus on development, and proposes that the scale of the national integrated circuit industry will maintain a 20% growth rate in 2020.
The global semiconductor quartz scale is expected to exceed 15 billion yuan in 2018, and domestic quartz accelerates domestic substitution
According to our industry survey data, the global semiconductor quartz market size is estimated to be about 2 billion U.S. dollars (13.7 billion yuan) in 2017, accounting for about 20% of the domestic market, to 400 million U.S. dollars (2.8 billion yuan). We have learned from the Semiconductor Industry Association that the amount of quartz used per unit of semiconductor output value has basically remained stable, and data from China Mineral Processing Technology Network shows that the price of quartz sand did not fluctuate significantly from 2015 to 2018, so we can judge that the output value of quartz materials is the same as that of semiconductor increase. Based on the above we can speculate:
Global semiconductor quartz demand: As mentioned earlier, SEMI expects the global semiconductor industry to achieve a growth rate of 12.4% in 2018 and a 4.4% growth rate in 19 years; according to the strategic planning department of a global semiconductor company, the global semiconductor growth rate will gradually increase in 17-20 years. Slow, so we assume that the growth rate in 2020 will slightly weaken to 3.5%. From this, it can be predicted that the global semiconductor quartz industry scales from 2018 to 2020 will be 15.3 billion, 16.4 billion, and 16.4 billion yuan, respectively.
Domestic semiconductor quartz demand: Assuming that the domestic semiconductor industry maintains a 20% growth rate in accordance with the "Made in China 2025" target in 2018-2020, the domestic semiconductor quartz demand in 2018-2020 is expected to be 3.4 billion, 4 billion and 4.8 billion yuan, respectively.
As domestic semiconductor quartz moves to China and domestic substitution is accelerating, supply has ushered in rapid growth. The continued development of China's semiconductor industry has also laid a good foundation for the development of the semiconductor manufacturing materials market. With the breakthrough of high-end products of domestic quartz enterprises, customer certification and cut-in, it can be seen from the results of announcements by Philips and Quartz that the growth rate of semiconductor orders for domestic quartz enterprises reached 40-60% in 17-18. With the rapid growth of the domestic semiconductor industry, on the other hand, in the semiconductor auxiliary materials and a small number of core supports, the domestic substitution process has accelerated.
Domestic quartz companies are committed to passing semiconductor international certification. Semiconductor-related industries have high requirements for the production of raw materials, and the quality of quartz materials directly affects the qualification rate of semiconductor products. At present, semiconductor manufacturers adopt a material certification system for global suppliers. Only products that pass the verification can enter the supply chain procurement catalog. At present, the main semiconductor raw material supplier certifications include Japan Tokyo Electronics Certification, American Applied Materials Certification, Lam Research Certification, etc. According to the company announcement, Philips China has passed a number of verifications, and Quartz is also actively promoting semiconductor certification.
Semiconductor application example: lithographic mask substrate
Lithographic masks are high-precision tools for transferring graphic negatives in the manufacturing process of semiconductor integrated circuits and display screens. The lithographic mask is usually made of high-purity synthetic quartz ingots, with high technical barriers. The mask is used for the mass production of downstream electronic component manufacturing. It is a key part of the downstream electronic component manufacturing process. One of the determinants of accuracy.
In 2015, the global photomask size was about 4.5 billion yuan. According to SEMI data, in 2017, the global semiconductor photomask market alone has reached 3.670 billion US dollars, and the market capacity has grown steadily each year. According to the existing semiconductor quartz data of the Quartz Professional Committee of the China Association of Building Glass and Industrial Glass, the global scale of photomask quartz materials in 2015 was 4.5 billion yuan (including semiconductor and display masks).
The entire industrial chain of photomasks includes: 1) upstream raw material manufacturers (Momentive, Heraeus, Philips, etc.) produce high-purity quartz ingots by purification, synthesis, etc .; 2) semiconductor equipment manufacturers (Tokyo Electronics, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Photronics, etc.) deep processing of quartz ingots, including: cutting, grinding, polishing, chrome plating, gluing, etc .; 3) the final photomask is used by semiconductor manufacturers (Intel, Samsung, TSMC, etc.) and display manufacturers (BOE, Huaxing Optoelectronics, etc.).
In addition to semiconductor demand, the global TV panel industry's large-screen trend is obvious. With the successive commissioning of high-generation lines, the demand for photomasks in new production lines continues to increase. In the display industry, TV panels are still dominated by LCDs, and OLED penetration in mobile phones is rapidly increasing. But no matter what technology is used, lithographic masks are an indispensable basic material in the production process of display screens.
The main factors driving the growth of the photomask industry are: 1) Each new generation of semiconductor and display products requires new supporting photomasks, more high-frequency semiconductors (mobile Internet, Internet of Things), and display (display Technological innovation and large screen) The introduction of new products means more demand for new photomasks; 2) Moore's Law promotes the development of photomask systems into more complex systems; 3) LCD promotes the faster growth of the display industry, WitsView predicts that the domestic flat-panel display industry will grow 20-25% in the past 18 years; 4) The rapid expansion of China's integrated circuit industry promotes the growth of the global industry. According to the plan of the "National IC Development Promotion Outline", China's integrated circuit will maintain by 2020 20% annual growth rate.