Morgan Stanley published a research report stating that in the past, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) could only support new energy vehicles for about 350 kilometers, but the new generation has increased to 400 kilometers. It is believed that demand will increase in the medium term, but nickel-cobalt-manganese batteries (NCM) Battery pack (CTP, Cell to Pack) will be the final technology, and LFP will be replaced.
The bank said that it was reported that Tesla was negotiating with Ningde Times (300750.SZ) to supply LFP batteries to save 15% of costs. The LFP battery can support a driving distance of about 350 kilometers, while the Tesla Model 3 requires 450 kilometers, which is a significant gap. It is estimated that the new CTP assembly scheme of the Ningde era will enable the LFP battery to support about 400 kilometers. Whether the two sides can negotiate in the future depends on whether Tesla customers can accept the lower kilometers.
The bank also stated that it believes that the cost of NCM can be reduced by 15-20% in the next three years. In terms of performance, NCM + CTP will provide longer driving distance than NCM and LFP. It is believed that customers will tend to choose a more durable model within their budget. The bank said that the battery's ability and safety are still very concerned, so it is believed that there is still a market for LFP, and the LFP + CTP solution of the Ningde era still has high-tech entry thresholds.