Recently, Shanshan Energy announced that Shanshan Energy (Ningxia) Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, plans to invest in the development, production, and sales of lithium battery cathode materials in Ningxia. The planned comprehensive capacity is 10,000 tons / year. The total investment is about 209 million yuan. It is reported that the project mainly produces ternary cathode materials.
Shanshan Energy stated that with the rapid development of the new energy vehicle market in China, the demand for power lithium batteries has increased significantly, and with the continuous increase in the energy density requirements of lithium batteries, the market demand for ternary materials has always maintained a growing trend.
The strong demand for ternary cathode materials is well reflected in the company's financial report. Not long ago, Dangsheng Technology announced the third quarter report for 2018. In the first three quarters, operating income was 2.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.60%; non-net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 196 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 133.45%. This was mainly due to the rapid growth in sales of lithium battery anode materials from Dangsheng Technology, and a significant year-on-year increase in lithium battery anode material business.
Driving of the passenger car market
In recent years, ternary materials have become the fastest growing segment of cathode materials. According to statistics, in 2017, the national cathode material output was 210,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 30%, of which 86,000 tons of ternary materials, 58,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, 45,000 tons of lithium cobaltate, and 21,000 tons of lithium manganese; The material replaced lithium iron phosphate in 2016 as the fastest growing cathode material in 2017.
Battery China.com understands that the growth of ternary materials is mainly due to the pull of the pure electric passenger car market. At present, the growth trend of electric buses in the domestic mainstream market of lithium iron phosphate has slowed down, while the market demand for passenger cars as a percentage of the overall demand for electric vehicles has been rising.
Data show that from 2018 to 2020, China's new energy passenger vehicle output can reach 800,000, 1.24 million and 1.94 million, respectively, which will drive the demand for ternary batteries 30GWh, 51GWh and 89GWh, after conversion to three yuan in the next three years The demand for cathode materials will reach 52,000 tons, 82,000 tons, and 137,000 tons, respectively. The corresponding three-dimensional cathode market for electric vehicles will be 11.4 billion yuan, 16.3 billion yuan, and 24.5 billion yuan, with a total market size of more than 50 billion yuan.
High Nickelization Trend
At present, the entire power battery industry is undergoing a period of drastic changes. Regardless of policy orientation, market demand, or technology evolution, high nickelization of ternary materials has become an inevitable trend in the development of power lithium battery materials. Against the backdrop of subsiding subsidence and intensifying international competition, domestic companies are actively deploying high-nickel ternary areas.
High nickelization significantly increases the energy density of power batteries, meaning that batteries of the same weight can provide more charge, while reducing weight and reducing power consumption by 100 kilometers, it has significantly improved the range of new energy vehicles. Passenger cars that are limited and sensitive to endurance are critical.
From the perspective of industry trends, the current domestic mainstream power ternary battery cathode material is NCM523, and the development direction is NCM811 and NCA. Under the current technology level, the energy density of NCM811 power battery products may be increased by 15-20% compared with NCM523 products. Further performance optimization of subsequent high-nickel products can be increased to more than 30%.
Globally, South Korea's SK Innovation and LG Chem will launch NCM811 batteries for electric vehicles next year. Panasonic and Tesla have already used NCA materials on a large scale in advance. Although domestic power battery companies are still a long way from Panasonic in terms of NCA, they have made major breakthroughs and started trials of NCM811 products in small batches.
"The problem that has troubled the application of 811 materials has been solved before. The next step will be the verification of small batch applications." Su Jinran, deputy chief engineer of Lishen Battery, said that in terms of technology, some power battery manufacturers including Lishen basically solved the 811 Technical difficulties in cylindrical battery applications.
As for domestic power battery companies, CATL, BYD, Funeng Technology, BAK Battery, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Tianjin Lishen, Penghui Energy, Smart Energy and other companies have all started R & D and production of NCM811 batteries. Among them, BAK Battery announced that it has mass-produced the cylindrical power battery NCM811, with an energy density of 230Wh / kg, and said that 300Wh / kg products will also be available soon. Penghui Energy also revealed that the company's cylindrical batteries using NCM811 material have been mass-produced and supplied to relevant automakers. At the beginning of 2018, Guoxuan Hi-Tech said that it has developed a ternary 811 material soft-packed battery cell with an energy density of 302wh / kg.
Smart Energy has deployed high-nickel 811 battery products as early as 2014. In recent years, it has achieved corresponding matching with OEMs. It is currently one of the few companies capable of mass-producing cylindrical 811 high-nickel batteries. Its 2600-2900 mAh products have begun to use high-nickel 811 materials, and a small number of shipments have been made in 2017. They will be shipped in batches in March this year. It is expected that 50% of batteries in 2018 will use high-nickel 811 materials.
The layout of the material company
Battery China.com understands that due to the urgent demand for the introduction of high nickel ternary materials by car companies and battery companies, the speed of advancement has continued to accelerate. Since 2018, NCM811 materials have shown a serious shortage of supply. In order to meet market demand, domestic cathode material manufacturers are also actively deploying high-nickel products. These capacities have been gradually supplied to the market. Especially, the production capacity and output of NCM811 products have received high attention.
It is reported that at present, high-nickel 811 materials of Dangsheng Technology, Ningbo Jinhe and Shanshan Energy have achieved mass production, and high-nickel 811 projects such as Xiamen Tungsten, Tianjin Bamo, and Huayou Cobalt are also being promoted.
Dangsheng Technology successfully launched high nickel power NCM811 and NCA cathode materials in 2017. At present, Dangsheng Technology's Jiangsu Phase II and Phase II project has been successfully put into operation. The planned production capacity of NCM811 / NCA is 4,000 tons. After the NCM811 production capacity is gradually completed, it is expected to achieve volume in 2019; At present, NCM811 has been supplied to large international customers in batches; Grimex said that it has successfully launched high-nickel products such as 811 and NCA, and has begun to supply externally.
The relevant person in charge of Ningbo Jinhe said that it is expected that Ningbo Jinhe will release more than 12,000 tons of production capacity in 2018. Due to higher cobalt prices, the price of 523 is RMB 23,235,300 / tonne, and the price of 811 is RMB 260,000-270,000 yuan / ton. The price-performance ratio of 811 exceeds RMB 523. If the technology is mature, the downstream will switch to 811 as soon as possible.
According to forecasts, the market size of high-nickel ternary materials is expected to reach 21 billion yuan in 2020. With the accelerated popularization of new energy vehicles, the demand for ternary materials will further increase.